Value Bets, Long Shots and Short Odds
To profit from sports betting in the long run, many professional gamblers use value betting.
This page contains tables with statistical analysis of the latest odds from UK bookmakers. Our soccer odds analysis tables can help you find value bets, and assist with other betting strategies. Some terminology is explained on our Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Finding Football Value Bets with Spikes
There are various ways of finding value bets, those bets where implied odds offered by a bookie are higher than the actual odds. One approach is to examine the form of teams and players, and to read the latest news. There are many tipsters and statistics sites which can help you.
Another approach is to identify individual bookies that offer much better odds than the consensus opinion of a larger group of bookies. We refer to odds that are significantly higher than the average as a "spike"
. The table below shows spikes as a percentage above the mean.
Spikes can help us find value bets, because they separate good-value bookies from the rest of the pack. Beware though: just because one bookie is offering higher odds than the other bookies does not guarantee that it really is a value bet. Maybe all the odds offered are poor value, including the spike.
For example, if almost all bookies are offering odds of 3/1 on City to win then the actual odds are probably close to 3/1 (or a little higher).
If just one bookie is offering odds of 4/1 on City, then perhaps we have found a value bet.
The table below would show the odds of 4/1 as a spike.
Other Betting Strategies
Value betting is one of the most common strategies used by professional sports gamblers, but other approaches are possible.
Some people prefer to bet on long shots (i.e. very unlikely events) while others prefer to stick to short odds (events which are very probable).
Football Odds Analysis - Top Ten Tables
We do not provide tips and do not recommend any particular betting strategy.
This page does, however, provide soccer odds analysis in three top ten tables.
As well as the match summary (date, competition, and teams), each table lists the best odds available on a particular outcome (Home or Away Win, or Draw) and the bookie offering these odds.
Each table also includes Standard Deviation.
Standard Deviation measures the amount of variation in a set of values.
A low standard deviation indicates that the bookies all offer very similar odds.
A high standard deviation means that the odds offered vary widely.
For Spikes, a high spike percentage alongside a low Standard Deviation indicates that most bookies agree on the odds to offer, with only one bookie offering much better odds. It is therefore worth investigating if this is a value bet. Unfortunately, any odds that looks too good to be true are probably
and should be checked before placing any bets.
For Long Shots and Short Odds, Standard Variation is a useful measure of how closely the bookies agree on odds.